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People should not be blinded by numbers, models and statistical analysis. Numbers are our servants not our masters. They are generated to describe behaviour not to prescribe it. As much as ‘flattening the curve’ has entered the public lexicon it is as wrong to think we can ‘will’ a curve to behave in a way that we wish.
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During these uncertain times basic assumptions are challenged and little can be taken for granted. Primary (medical and epidemiological) assertions are hard enough, let alone positing assertions about the secondary economic consequences of Covid-19 on the world.
The modern city and the way that the majority of people live in it is fairly ubiquitous. These days plumbing, electricity and heating are a standard inside most of the world’s city dwellings, and, huge proportion of these units are anodyne apartments. The cultural association, or the physical prompts of a city are important.
The Cambridge Analytica affair demonstrates how the internet works. It should come as no surprise to anyone who uses a free email, social media, brokerage, purchase and sale sites that all information is used. It is jaw dropping that anyone should think the situation is otherwise.
MIPIM is an event in the French Riviera town of Cannes where property professionals congregate on an annual basis to swap notes, do deals and show off. Clearly all of these are possible at any point throughout the year in any location without having to transport some tens of thousands of people to the South of France in the middle of a working week.
An important innovation and trend of the next few years will be the tokenisation of real estate. Tokens are an electronic – and blockchain enabled – expression of ownership. The use of tokens as distinct from money can democratise or widen the funding base of projects ...
Perceptions of financial correlation are arrived at informally and formally. Informally experience, insight and even intuition have a role forming an opinion how variables are connected. Formally testing hypotheses against scenarios on a quantitative basis (such as regression analysis), can yield huge insights as to how correlations are formed.
The world and the commercial apparatus that underpin it does not drum like a methodical, monotonous machine. There is a tempo and a cadence to events, that create cycles, that affect the world profoundly. For example, the events of the Second World War had a dramatic demographic impact in of itself ...
Basic Universal Income is mooted by some as a panacea to all troubles with the welfare state model. It is however an abhorrent instrument that should have no place in any society. It is as erroneous a model as anything from the socialist experiments of the twentieth century.
There is a parallel between research analysts and sports commentators. On the one hand, continual commentary requires hedging against all conceivable outcomes as you can’t go out too much on a limb without being shown a fool by events. On the other hand, a bit of emphasis wins alpha...
Strategy is an abused term. In the business world it is often used as a catch all for any decisions made in the ordinary course of business – usually reserved for ‘long term’ decisions whatever that means or may be. This is a tragedy and a sign of second rate management.
Germany is the listless heart of Europe. It has neither the stomach, the will or the capacity to provide leadership to a cantankerous collection of European nations. It has committed its whole unquestioning being to the European project and does not want to contemplate any alternative to this political course but insodoing has presented itself with an impossible (and thankless) challenge.
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